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2021 Predictions

Rules: unless otherwise specified, these predictions are for what will be true on 1/1/2022. I’ve redacted some predictions about my personal life and friends. Next year, I’ll publish and score my results.

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Rising Early

An early morning in Jackson, Wyoming
An early morning in Jackson, Wyoming

As a baby I never wanted to go to sleep: I stayed alert until I was completely exhausted (and my parents were too)! In high school and college, I regularly stayed up past 2AM. But for most of my professional life, I’ve been an early riser. I started out of convenience: gyms are less crowded early. Even after those circumstances changed, I found enough benefits to waking up early that I kept the habit. These days, I’m awake well before 6AM (and in bed by 9PM) almost every day. Here’s why I still do it:

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Vitamin D and Heart Palpitations

This isn’t medical advice. Talk to your doctor if you notice any health problems.

HRV over time
My HRV over time. Outliers are days I had heart palpitations.

In mid-2019, I experienced my first heart palpitations. “Palpitation” doesn’t do the feeling justice: your heart literally skips a beat. For me, each skipped beat comes with a surge of panic and the sense that something is wrong. I was suddenly aware of a part of my body I’d never thought about before.

At first, I only noticed them at night, especially after big, greasy meals. But over the next couple months, the palpitations grew in frequency. Throughout most of 2020, I experienced palpitations regularly — multiple times a week. There wasn’t a link between heavy meals and palpitations anymore; they’d strike without any apparent pattern. At just 25, I was legitimately worried about dying early.

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