2021 Predictions

Rules: unless otherwise specified, these predictions are for what will be true on 1/1/2022. I’ve redacted some predictions about my personal life and friends. Next year, I’ll publish and score my results.

Politics

• Trump leaves office in January: 95%
• Trump continues to claim election fraud after leaving office: 70%
• Democrats win both Georgia seats: 25%
• Democrats win just one Georgia seat: 10%
• At least one new Supreme Court justice: 20%
• The US re-enters the Paris climate agreement: 80%
• No armed conflict between major powers: >99%

Coronavirus

• Total confirmed US coronavirus cases exceed 40 million: 80%
• …60 million: 60%
• …100 million: 10%
• Total US coronavirus deaths exceed 1 million: 60%
• …2 million: 30%
• Excess deaths excluding coronavirus deaths exceed 1 million: 90%
• Vaccinations are widely considered effective: 95%
• At least 100M Americans are vaccinated: 90%
• …200M: 60%
• COVID variant B.1.1.7 is generally considered to have caused a fourth wave in the US: 65%
• The Moderna and/or Pfizer vaccines are effective on B.1.1.7: 95%
• Lockdowns are over in the US: 75%
• New York is considered the worst-hit US city: 30%
• Los Angeles is considered the worst-hit US city: 25%
• I personally get coronavirus: 20%
• Someone I’m close to (direct family or close friend) gets coronavirus: 75%

Economy

• The S&P 500 index is above 3703 (market close on December 25th, 2020): 80%
• …4000: 50%
• Bitcoin is above $10000: 90%
• …$20000: 60%
• …$50000: 5%
• Inflation is under 2%: 75%
• At least $2 trillion in additional stimulus passes: 80%
• Income taxes are deferred by at least one month: 75%

Professional

• [REDACTED]: 80%
• [REDACTED]: 60%
• [REDACTED]: 25%
• [REDACTED]: 95%
• [REDACTED]: 75%
• [REDACTED]: 80%
• [REDACTED]: 30%
• [REDACTED]: 95%
• …[REDACTED]: 40%
• [REDACTED]: 90%

Sports

• The 49ers make the playoffs in the 2021-22 season: 75%
• …and win the Super Bowl: 10%
• The Warriors make the playoffs in the 2020-21 season: 50%
• …and win the championship: 1%
• The NBA season is paused (no games for 7+ days): 20%
• I play fantasy football: 20%
• The Tokyo Olympics happen: 90%

Friends

• [REDACTED]: 95%
• [REDACTED]: 95%
• …[REDACTED]: 60%
• …[REDACTED]: 15%
• [REDACTED]: 90%
• …[REDACTED]: 75%
• [REDACTED]: 60%
• …[REDACTED]: 60%
• [REDACTED]: 30%
• [REDACTED]: 75%
• [REDACTED]: 30%

Track & Fitness

• Weight between 190 and 200: 90%
• Body fat under 10%: 80%
• …9%: 60%
• …8%: 40%
• I compete in at least one track meet with other participants: 70%
• I set a PR in the 60m: 65%
• …in the 100m: 85%
• …in the 200m: 85%
• …in the 400m: 35%
• I suffer a serious injury (2+ weeks of recovery): 30%
• I bench 300lbs: 75%
• I hex bar deadlift 700lbs: 80%
• I OHP 225lbs: 75%
• I’m coaching at least one athlete: 25%

Personal

• [REDACTED]: 80%
• [REDACTED]: 75%
• I don’t travel outside North America: 75%
• I get a dog: 75%
• …2 dogs: 10%
• I travel to Hawaii: 30%
• I travel to Mexico: 30%
• I publish at least 20 articles: 75%
• … at least 40 articles: 25%
• More hits than last year: 95%
• 200 Twitter followers: 70%
• …500: 5%
• My general notetaking workflow (Roam/Readwise) remains the same: 60%
• I buy a new cell phone: 10%
• I buy a new piece of wearable tech: 30%
• I buy a new laptop or iPad: 20%