2021 Predictions Review

Now that it’s 2022, I’ve scored my 2021 predictions. To get slightly bigger samples, I inverted the prediction and predicted probability of <50% predictions—e.g. “Democrats win both Georgia seats: 25%” became “Democrats do not win both Georgia seats: 75%” for scoring purposes.

Predicted Probability	Actual Probability
90+%	89%
80-89%	75%
70-79%	63%
60-69%	58%
50-59%	67%

I was a little overconfident across the board, but this actually lined up a lot better than I thought it would:

Full Results

Politics

• 🟢 Trump leaves office in January: 95%
• 🟢 Trump continues to claim election fraud after leaving office: 70%
• 🟢 Democrats win both Georgia seats: 25%
• 🔴 Democrats win just one Georgia seat: 10%
• 🔴 At least one new Supreme Court justice: 20%
• 🟢 The US re-enters the Paris climate agreement: 80%
• 🟢 No armed conflict between major powers: >99%

Coronavirus

• 🟢 Total confirmed US coronavirus cases exceed 40 million: 80%
• 🔴 …60 million: 60%
• 🔴 …100 million: 10%
• 🔴 Total US coronavirus deaths exceed 1 million: 60%
  • As of 1/1 there were slightly over 800,000 deaths.
• 🔴 …2 million: 30%
• 🟢 Excess deaths excluding coronavirus deaths exceed 1 million: 90%
  • According to Our World in Data and The Economist, US excess deaths were just over a million by the beginning of 2022.
• 🟢 Vaccinations are widely considered effective: 95%
• 🟢At least 100M Americans are vaccinated: 90%
  • The US has administered ~500 million doses and has fully vaccinated 62% of its population of ~330 million for about 204 million fully vaccinated Americans.
• 🟢 …200M: 60%
• 🟢 COVID variant B.1.1.7 is generally considered to have caused a fourth wave in the US: 65%

  • 

• 🟢 The Moderna and/or Pfizer vaccines are effective on B.1.1.7: 95%
• 🟢 Lockdowns are over in the US: 75%
  • As of 1/1/22 this was true… but we may be regressing with the Omicron wave.
• 🟢 New York is considered the worst-hit US city: 30%
  • New York City has had the most total deaths by far, with over 35,000 so far.
• 🔴 Los Angeles is considered the worst-hit US city: 25%
  • Los Angeles is in second place, with more than 27,000 deaths.
• 🟡 I personally get coronavirus: 20%
  • I strongly suspect that Emily and I had coronavirus in late August, but by the time I had access to a test I no longer had any symptoms and tested negative. I’m calling this and the next prediction a wash.
• 🟡 Someone I’m close to (direct family or close friend) gets coronavirus: 75%

Economy

• 🟢 The S&P 500 index is above 3703 (market close on December 25th, 2020): 80%
• 🟢 …4000: 50%
• 🟢 Bitcoin is above $10000: 90%
• 🟢 …$20000: 60%
• 🔴 …$50000: 5%
• 🔴 Inflation is under 2%: 75%
• 🔴 At least $2 trillion in additional stimulus passes: 80%
  • The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 had $1.9 trillion in stimulus spending.
• 🔴 Income taxes are deferred by at least one month: 75%

Professional

• 🔴 [REDACTED]: 80%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 60%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 25%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 95%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 75%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 80%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 30%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 95%
• 🟢 …[REDACTED]: 40%
• 🔴 [REDACTED]: 90%

Sports

• 🟢 The 49ers make the playoffs in the 2021-22 season: 75%
  • As of 1/1/21, the 49ers had a 74% chance of making the playoffs according to 538. I’m calling this a win.
• 🟡 …and win the Super Bowl: 10%
  • My mistake for including a prediction that wouldn’t resolve until late January… but this seems quite unlikely.
• 🔴 The Warriors make the playoffs in the 2020-21 season: 50%
• 🔴 …and win the championship: 1%
• 🔴 The NBA season is paused (no games for 7+ days): 20%
• 🔴 I play fantasy football: 20%
• 🟢 The Tokyo Olympics happen: 90%

Friends

• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 95%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 95%
• 🟢 …[REDACTED]: 60%
• 🔴 …[REDACTED]: 15%
• 🔴 [REDACTED]: 90%
• 🔴 …[REDACTED]: 75%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 60%
• 🟢 …[REDACTED]: 60%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 30%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 75%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 30%

Track & Fitness

• 🟢 Weight between 190 and 200: 90%
• 🟢 Body fat under 10%: 80%
  • I don’t have a recent test—but from eyeballing pictures I’m clearly under 10% and not clearly below 9%.
• 🟡 …9%: 60%
• 🟡 …8%: 40%
• 🟢 I compete in at least one track meet with other participants: 70%
• 🔴 I set a PR in the 60m: 65%
• 🟢 …in the 100m: 85%
• 🔴 …in the 200m: 85%
• 🔴 …in the 400m: 35%
• 🟢 I suffer a serious injury (2+ weeks of recovery): 30%
• 🔴 I bench 300lbs: 75%
• 🔴 I hex bar deadlift 700lbs: 80%
  • My max before moving was 690lbs.
• 🔴 I OHP 225lbs: 75%
• 🔴 I’m coaching at least one athlete: 25%

Personal

• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 80%
• 🟢 [REDACTED]: 75%
• 🟢 I don’t travel outside North America: 75%
• 🔴 I get a dog: 75%
• 🔴 …2 dogs: 10%
• 🔴 I travel to Hawaii: 30%
• 🔴 I travel to Mexico: 30%
• 🟢 I publish at least 20 articles: 75%
• 🟢 … at least 40 articles: 25%
• 🟢 More hits than last year: 95%
• 🔴 200 Twitter followers: 70%
• 🔴 …500: 5%
• 🟢 My general notetaking workflow (Roam/Readwise) remains the same: 60%
• 🔴 I buy a new cell phone: 10%
• 🟢 I buy a new piece of wearable tech: 30%
• 🔴 I buy a new laptop or iPad: 20%