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2021 Predictions

Rules: unless otherwise specified, these predictions are for what will be true on 1/1/2022. I’ve redacted some predictions about my personal life and friends. Next year, I’ll publish and score my results.

Politics

  • Trump leaves office in January: 95%
  • Trump continues to claim election fraud after leaving office: 70%
  • Democrats win both Georgia seats: 25%
  • Democrats win just one Georgia seat: 10%
  • At least one new Supreme Court justice: 20%
  • The US re-enters the Paris climate agreement: 80%
  • No armed conflict between major powers: >99%

Coronavirus

  • Total confirmed US coronavirus cases exceed 40 million: 80%
  • …60 million: 60%
  • …100 million: 10%
  • Total US coronavirus deaths exceed 1 million: 60%
  • …2 million: 30%
  • Excess deaths excluding coronavirus deaths exceed 1 million: 90%
  • Vaccinations are widely considered effective: 95%
  • At least 100M Americans are vaccinated: 90%
  • …200M: 60%
  • COVID variant B.1.1.7 is generally considered to have caused a fourth wave in the US: 65%
  • The Moderna and/or Pfizer vaccines are effective on B.1.1.7: 95%
  • Lockdowns are over in the US: 75%
  • New York is considered the worst-hit US city: 30%
  • Los Angeles is considered the worst-hit US city: 25%
  • I personally get coronavirus: 20%
  • Someone I’m close to (direct family or close friend) gets coronavirus: 75%

Economy

  • The S&P 500 index is above 3703 (market close on December 25th, 2020): 80%
  • …4000: 50%
  • Bitcoin is above $10000: 90%
  • …$20000: 60%
  • …$50000: 5%
  • Inflation is under 2%: 75%
  • At least $2 trillion in additional stimulus passes: 80%
  • Income taxes are deferred by at least one month: 75%

Professional

  • [REDACTED]: 80%
  • [REDACTED]: 60%
  • [REDACTED]: 25%
  • [REDACTED]: 95%
  • [REDACTED]: 75%
  • [REDACTED]: 80%
  • [REDACTED]: 30%
  • [REDACTED]: 95%
  • …[REDACTED]: 40%
  • [REDACTED]: 90%

Sports

  • The 49ers make the playoffs in the 2021-22 season: 75%
  • …and win the Super Bowl: 10%
  • The Warriors make the playoffs in the 2020-21 season: 50%
  • …and win the championship: 1%
  • The NBA season is paused (no games for 7+ days): 20%
  • I play fantasy football: 20%
  • The Tokyo Olympics happen: 90%

Friends

  • [REDACTED]: 95%
  • [REDACTED]: 95%
  • …[REDACTED]: 60%
  • …[REDACTED]: 15%
  • [REDACTED]: 90%
  • …[REDACTED]: 75%
  • [REDACTED]: 60%
  • …[REDACTED]: 60%
  • [REDACTED]: 30%
  • [REDACTED]: 75%
  • [REDACTED]: 30%

Track & Fitness

  • Weight between 190 and 200: 90%
  • Body fat under 10%: 80%
  • …9%: 60%
  • …8%: 40%
  • I compete in at least one track meet with other participants: 70%
  • I set a PR in the 60m: 65%
  • …in the 100m: 85%
  • …in the 200m: 85%
  • …in the 400m: 35%
  • I suffer a serious injury (2+ weeks of recovery): 30%
  • I bench 300lbs: 75%
  • I hex bar deadlift 700lbs: 80%
  • I OHP 225lbs: 75%
  • I’m coaching at least one athlete: 25%

Personal

  • [REDACTED]: 80%
  • [REDACTED]: 75%
  • I don’t travel outside North America: 75%
  • I get a dog: 75%
  • …2 dogs: 10%
  • I travel to Hawaii: 30%
  • I travel to Mexico: 30%
  • I publish at least 20 articles: 75%
  • … at least 40 articles: 25%
  • More hits than last year: 95%
  • 200 Twitter followers: 70%
  • …500: 5%
  • My general notetaking workflow (Roam/Readwise) remains the same: 60%
  • I buy a new cell phone: 10%
  • I buy a new piece of wearable tech: 30%
  • I buy a new laptop or iPad: 20%
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